DEMDon DavisIncumbent
- Raised
- $5,805,482
- Spent
- $5,250,506
- Cash on hand
- $825,818
FEC · As of Oct 14, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗← Races 2026
The State · North Carolina · Nov. 3, 2026
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 01
Polls, campaign money and the district behind the race.
The State · Election night and the morning after
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The State · On the ballot
Candidates
REPLaurie Buckhout
- Raised
- $4,787,737
- Spent
- $3,376,140
- Cash on hand
- $1,437,901
FEC · As of Oct 14, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗LIBTom Bailey
- Raised
- $0
- Spent
- $0
- Cash on hand
- $0
FEC · Coverage date not reported
FEC candidate filing ↗The State · Last 120 days
Poll average
Bailey8.0%
1 polls used · Latest Oct 4, 2026
Buckhout40.7%
3 polls used · Latest Oct 6, 2026
Davis49.6%
3 polls used · Latest Oct 6, 2026
The State · Every public poll
Polls over time
● Davis● Bailey● Buckhout● Undecided
Each point is a poll, dated by its final field day. All reported choices and outliers are retained.
The State · 6 public polls
The full record
LV: likely voters · RV: registered voters · A: adults · MOE: margin of error
| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | MOE | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood Research and Media | Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 6, 2026 | 303 · LV | Not reported | Davis 51% Buckhout 41% | Release ↗ Aggregator source only (uspollingdata.com, data via VoteHub); original release was an X post by Rick Shaftan that could not be fetched. Sponsor not stated; undecided not reported. |
| GQRD-sponsored | Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026 | 500 · LV | Not reported | Davis 47% Bailey 8% Buckhout 39% Undecided 6% | Release ↗ Internal tracking poll, live phone, memo dated Oct 5; memo names no sponsor, reported as Democratic-sponsored. With undecided and third party allocated: Davis 50, Buckhout 45. No MoE published. |
| GBAO House Majority PAC D-sponsored | Sep 9, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026 | 500 · LV | ±4.4 points | Davis 50% Buckhout 43% Undecided 7% | Release ↗ Sample size from Wikipedia/Pollsmax |
| GQRD-sponsored | Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026 | 500 · LV | Not reported | Davis 45% Bailey 8% Buckhout 41% Undecided 6% | Release ↗ Two-way: Davis 49, Buckhout 47; dates/sample/undecided from Wikipedia |
| co/efficient NRCC R-sponsored | Apr 25, 2026 to Apr 29, 2026 | 842 · LV | ±3.37 points | Davis 41% Buckhout 41% Undecided 17% | Release ↗ District generic: R 46, D 42 |
| GQRD-sponsored | Jan 29, 2026 to Feb 2, 2026 | 500 · LV | Not reported | Davis 42% Bailey 9% Buckhout 39% Undecided 9% | Release ↗ Bailey/undecided from Wikipedia; original release not found |
The State · Graded after the results
Poll review
No two-party polls to grade in this race
The State · District estimate
2024 presidential vote
2024 presidential vote in the 2026 district lines (estimate)
Trump +11.6
- Harris
- 43.7%
- 183,327 votes
- Trump
- 55.3%
- 232,221 votes
- Total votes
- 419,893
- Precincts
- 294
The State · 2024 presidential vote
Top precincts
The State · How to read this
Method and sources
The average uses polls from the last 120 days, weighted for recency and sample size. Older polls drop out. Campaign and party-sponsored polls count half as much. Each poll counts once, with likely voters preferred when a poll reports multiple populations. Every public poll is shown below, including outliers. District lean is an estimate of the 2024 presidential vote within the 2026 district lines. Absentee and early votes reported at county level are spread across districts in proportion to precinct votes. Sources: NC State Board of Elections, FEC and pollster releases. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
Precinct map · Coming soonVoter registration by party · Coming soon