GREMichael Dublin
- Raised
- $28,231
- Spent
- $26,976
- Cash on hand
- $2,996
FEC · As of Oct 14, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗← Races 2026
The State · North Carolina · Nov. 3, 2026
US SENATE
Polls, campaign money and the district behind the race.
The State · Election night and the morning after
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The State · On the ballot
Candidates
REPMichael Whatley
- Raised
- $13,668,468
- Spent
- $12,766,229
- Cash on hand
- $902,238
FEC · As of Oct 14, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗DEMRoy Cooper
- Raised
- $49,585,341
- Spent
- $40,496,482
- Cash on hand
- $9,088,860
FEC · As of Oct 14, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗LIBShannon W. Bray
- Raised
- $0
- Spent
- $0
- Cash on hand
- $0
FEC · Coverage date not reported
FEC candidate filing ↗The State · Last 120 days
Poll average
Bray1.9%
9 polls used · Latest Oct 23, 2026
Cooper52.3%
32 polls used · Latest Nov 1, 2026
Dublin1.1%
9 polls used · Latest Oct 23, 2026
Whatley41.7%
32 polls used · Latest Nov 1, 2026
The State · Every public poll
Polls over time
● Cooper● Whatley● Undecided● Bray● Dublin● Other
Each point is a poll, dated by its final field day. All reported choices and outliers are retained.
The State · 60 public polls
The full record
LV: likely voters · RV: registered voters · A: adults · MOE: margin of error
| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | MOE | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel Pollstergraph | Oct 28, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026 | 1,459 · LV | ±3 points | Other 1.3% Cooper 56.4% Whatley 41.5% Undecided 0.4% | Release ↗ Atlas/Pollstergraph poll released Nov 2. Online random digital recruitment. Other 1.3, don't know 0.4, would not vote 0.4. Numbers via NC Political News report of the AtlasIntel PDF (PDF itself not reachable); also listed by 270toWin and Call the Map. |
| East Carolina University East Carolina University | Oct 26, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026 | 1,041 · LV | ±3.5 points | Other 1% Cooper 54% Whatley 45% | Release ↗ Released Nov 1. Voters who have voted or are likely to vote. MoE is a credibility interval. No undecided share reported. |
| YouGov | Oct 26, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026 | 2,130 · LV | ±2.9 points | Other 1% Cooper 55% Whatley 44% Undecided 1% | Release ↗ Sponsor not named in topline document. |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Oct 24, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026 | 722 · LV | ±4 points | Cooper 51.4% Whatley 42.8% Undecided 3.4% | Release ↗ Released Oct 26; Quantus page blocked, numbers via NC Political News. With leaners: Cooper 52.4, Whatley 43.4. Two-way: Cooper 53.2, Whatley 44.1. |
| RedBox Research A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) D-sponsored | Oct 20, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026 | 3,292 · LV | ±3.7 points | Bray 1% Other 1% Cooper 50% Dublin 0% Whatley 43% Undecided 3% | Release ↗ Pollster is the polling unit of the sponsoring super PAC; D lean per PollCheck and Poliwave labels. Text-to-web. 2 percent prefer not to answer. |
| ActiVote | Oct 8, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026 | 400 · LV | ±4.9 points | Cooper 56.9% Whatley 43.1% | Release ↗ App-based poll, two-candidate shares sum to 100, no undecided reported. MoE described as average expected error. |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Oct 18, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026 | 600 · LV | ±4 points | Bray 2.9% Cooper 49.4% Dublin 1.9% Whatley 39.1% Undecided 6.8% | Release ↗ Released Oct 22. Head-to-head without third parties: Cooper 51.6, Whatley 42.0, unsure 6.5. |
| High Point University/YouGov High Point University | Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026 | 620 · LV | ±4.7 points | Bray 2% Cooper 54% Dublin 1% Whatley 40% Undecided 4% | Release ↗ Released Oct 28. Online YouGov panel; MoE is a credibility interval. Undecided includes would not vote. |
| SurveyUSA WRAL-TV/WSOC-TV | Oct 7, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026 | 643 · LV | ±5 points | Other 1% Cooper 54% Whatley 40% Undecided 5% | Release ↗ 643 likely voters out of 900 adults. MoE is a 5-point credibility interval. Undecided reported as about 5. SurveyUSA release: https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0a876c84-9a95-4995-9218-82b1015f5d77 |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 8, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 | 1,091 · LV | ±2.9 points | Bray 1.4% Cooper 48.8% Dublin 2% Whatley 40.9% Undecided 6.9% | Release ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 8, 2026 | 561 · LV | ±4.9 points | Bray 2% Other 0% Cooper 52% Dublin 1% Whatley 39% Undecided 6% | Release ↗ Final Elon Poll, released Oct 20. Online YouGov panel; MoE is a credibility interval. With undecideds pushed: Cooper 54, Whatley 43. |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 8, 2026 | 691 · RV | ±4.44 points | Bray 2% Other 0% Cooper 47% Dublin 1% Whatley 38% Undecided 10% | Release ↗ Final Elon Poll, released Oct 20. Registered voters; 2 percent said they do not plan to vote. With undecideds pushed: Cooper 51, Whatley 42. |
| Change Research Carolina Forward D-sponsored | Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 7, 2026 | 829 · LV | ±3.7 points | Bray 2% Cooper 50% Dublin 1% Whatley 40% | Release ↗ Senate figures with leaners, from the Carolina Forward toplines document (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nVWsUhnA6dAlqOgHS2j2K6kFoJLJFjQbkN8KAXhyK0s); undecided share not confirmed. RealClearPolling also lists 50 to 40. |
| East Carolina University East Carolina University | Sep 30, 2026 to Oct 3, 2026 | 810 · LV | ±4 points | Other 2% Cooper 50% Whatley 43% Undecided 6% | Release ↗ Forced choice: Cooper 53, Whatley 46. MoE is a credibility interval. |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 27, 2026 to Sep 29, 2026 | 642 · LV | ±4 points | Cooper 47.4% Whatley 35.2% Undecided 17.4% | Release ↗ With leaners: Cooper 50.8, Whatley 38.5 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 27, 2026 to Sep 29, 2026 | 698 · RV | ±4 points | Cooper 45.2% Whatley 34.2% Undecided 20.6% | Release ↗ |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026 | 686 · LV | ±4.2 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 43% | Release ↗ |
| Rasmussen Reports | Sep 22, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026 | 1,047 · LV | ±3 points | Bray 3% Cooper 48% Dublin 1% Whatley 41% Undecided 7% | Release ↗ Fieldwork by Pulse Opinion Research; released Sept 24 and missed in earlier runs |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP | Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026 | 1,115 · LV | ±2.9 points | Cooper 53% Whatley 42% Undecided 5% | Release ↗ |
| Opinion Diagnostics Common Cause North Carolina | Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026 | 857 · LV | ±3.3 points | Other 2% Cooper 51% Whatley 41% Undecided 5.4% | Release ↗ With leaners: Cooper 52, Whatley 44 |
| YouGov | Sep 15, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026 | 3,895 · RV | ±2.5 points | Cooper 52% Whatley 41% | Release ↗ 270toWin lists 3,742 LV, 53-41 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 16, 2026 to Sep 17, 2026 | 1,200 · LV | ±2.83 points | Cooper 48.4% Whatley 42.5% | Release ↗ |
| High Point University/YouGov High Point University | Sep 9, 2026 to Sep 16, 2026 | 706 · LV | ±3.9 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 42% Undecided 8% | Release ↗ Field dates per poliwave; release page unreachable |
| Catawba College/YouGov Catawba College | Sep 4, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 | 885 · LV | ±3.68 points | Cooper 47% Whatley 35% Undecided 18% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 | 608 · LV | ±3.97 points | Bray 2.9% Cooper 49.2% Dublin 1.5% Whatley 34.1% Undecided 12.3% | Release ↗ |
| Trafalgar Group | Sep 8, 2026 to Sep 10, 2026 | 1,084 · LV | ±2.9 points | Cooper 48.2% Whatley 42.3% Undecided 9.5% | Release ↗ Aggregator source only; pollster release not fetched |
| East Carolina University East Carolina University | Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 3, 2026 | 675 · LV | ±4.4 points | Cooper 46% Whatley 39% Undecided 14% | Release ↗ Forced choice: Cooper 52, Whatley 44 |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Aug 21, 2026 to Aug 31, 2026 | 565 · LV | ±5.6 points | Bray 2% Cooper 49% Dublin 2% Whatley 38% Undecided 8% | Release ↗ LV n=565 per Newsweek/270toWin |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Aug 21, 2026 to Aug 31, 2026 | Not reported · RV | ±5.05 points | Cooper 49% Whatley 36% Undecided 14% | Release ↗ |
| High Point University/YouGov High Point University | Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 | 660 · LV | ±5.2 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 45% Undecided 5% | Release ↗ |
| High Point University/YouGov High Point University | Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 | 800 · RV | ±4.3 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 41% Undecided 11% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Aug 9, 2026 to Aug 10, 2026 | 600 · LV | ±4 points | Cooper 51.5% Whatley 39% Undecided 9.5% | Release ↗ |
| Change Research Carolina Forward D-sponsored | Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026 | 915 · LV | ±3.5 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 43% | Release ↗ |
| Change ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 29, 2026 to Aug 1, 2026 | 967 · RV | ±3.4 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 41% Undecided 9% | Release ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Jul 23, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026 | 466 · LV | ±5.6 points | Cooper 53% Whatley 42% Undecided 5% | Release ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Jul 23, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026 | 717 · RV | ±4.42 points | Cooper 51% Whatley 35% Undecided 14% | Release ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov Elon University | Jul 23, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026 | 800 · A | ±4.2 points | Cooper 47% Whatley 33% Undecided 20% | Release ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Fox News | Jul 23, 2026 to Jul 27, 2026 | 1,005 · RV | ±3 points | Cooper 53% Whatley 44% Undecided 3% | Release ↗ |
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Jul 10, 2026 to Jul 11, 2026 | 759 · LV | ±3.6 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 44% Undecided 8% | Release ↗ 270toWin lists RV |
| Siena College New York Times | Jun 15, 2026 to Jun 27, 2026 | 601 · LV | ±4.7 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 43% Undecided 6% | Release ↗ |
| Catawba College/YouGov Catawba College | Jun 1, 2026 to Jun 10, 2026 | 905 · LV | ±3.83 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 34% Undecided 15% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | May 10, 2026 to May 11, 2026 | 600 · LV | ±4 points | Cooper 49.8% Whatley 38.7% Undecided 11.5% | Release ↗ |
| Change ResearchD-sponsored | May 4, 2026 to May 8, 2026 | 957 · LV | ±3.3 points | Cooper 49% Whatley 42% Undecided 9% | Release ↗ |
| Opinion DiagnosticsR-sponsored | Apr 21, 2026 to Apr 24, 2026 | 830 · RV | ±3.5 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 41% Undecided 9% | Release ↗ Reported as 'voters' |
| High Point University/YouGov High Point University | Mar 26, 2026 to Apr 6, 2026 | 703 · LV | ±4.3 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 42% Undecided 8% | Release ↗ |
| High Point University/YouGov High Point University | Mar 26, 2026 to Apr 6, 2026 | 800 · RV | ±4.1 points | Cooper 49% Whatley 39% Undecided 12% | Release ↗ |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Mar 31, 2026 to Apr 1, 2026 | 987 · LV | ±3.5 points | Cooper 49% Whatley 44% Undecided 8% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Mar 22, 2026 to Mar 23, 2026 | 600 · LV | ±4 points | Cooper 48.9% Whatley 41.1% | Release ↗ |
| Catawba College/YouGov Catawba College | Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 18, 2026 | 871 · LV | ±3.58 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 34% Undecided 14% | Release ↗ Numbers include leaners (47-31 without). LV n=871 per 270toWin; Wikipedia lists 1,000 LV; 1,266 adults interviewed |
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Mar 13, 2026 to Mar 14, 2026 | 556 · RV | ±4.2 points | Cooper 47% Whatley 44% Undecided 9% | Release ↗ Reported as 'voters' |
| Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions | Mar 8, 2026 to Mar 9, 2026 | 800 · RV | ±3.5 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 32% Undecided 18% | Release ↗ Wikipedia lists RV; 270toWin lists LV |
| Change Research Carolina Forward D-sponsored | Jan 31, 2026 to Feb 4, 2026 | 1,069 · RV | ±3.1 points | Cooper 50% Whatley 40% Undecided 11% | Release ↗ |
| TIPP InsightsR-sponsored | Jan 12, 2026 to Jan 15, 2026 | 1,512 · RV | ±2.7 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 24% Undecided 27% | Release ↗ |
| Change Research Carolina Forward D-sponsored | Jan 5, 2026 to Jan 7, 2026 | 1,105 · LV | ±3.5 points | Cooper 47% Whatley 42% Undecided 9% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Nov 9, 2025 to Nov 10, 2025 | 600 · LV | ±4 points | Cooper 47.3% Whatley 38.6% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Sep 14, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025 | 600 · RV | ±4 points | Cooper 46% Whatley 42% Undecided 12% | Release ↗ |
| Change Research Carolina Forward D-sponsored | Sep 2, 2025 to Sep 8, 2025 | 855 · LV | ±3.6 points | Cooper 48% Whatley 41% Undecided 11% | Release ↗ |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) R-sponsored | Aug 11, 2025 to Aug 12, 2025 | 600 · RV | ±4 points | Cooper 47% Whatley 39% Undecided 14% | Release ↗ |
| Emerson College | Jul 28, 2025 to Jul 30, 2025 | 1,000 · RV | ±3 points | Cooper 47% Whatley 41% Undecided 12% | Release ↗ |
| Victory InsightsR-sponsored | Jul 28, 2025 to Jul 30, 2025 | 600 · LV | Not reported | Cooper 43% Whatley 40% Undecided 17% | Release ↗ |
The State · Graded after the results
Poll review
No two-party polls to grade in this race
The State · How to read this
Method and sources
The average uses polls from the last 120 days, weighted for recency and sample size. Older polls drop out. Campaign and party-sponsored polls count half as much. Each poll counts once, with likely voters preferred when a poll reports multiple populations. Every public poll is shown below, including outliers. District lean is an estimate of the 2024 presidential vote within the 2026 district lines. Absentee and early votes reported at county level are spread across districts in proportion to precinct votes. Sources: NC State Board of Elections, FEC and pollster releases. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
Precinct map · Coming soonVoter registration by party · Coming soon